Solar PV industry recommended to stay optimistic; US govt. supports India's clean energy initiative!

Solarcon India 2011 started today in Hyderabad, with Jim Brown, president, Utility Systems Business Group, First Solar Inc., stating that the global solar PV industry is in a bit of the state of turmoil. Some are driven by pure supply-demand. He recommended the industry to be strategically optimistic. He cautioned that not everyone who's playing in this field, will go on to survive the next two to three years. First Solar reiterated its optimism regarding its own prospects in the industry.

Commending Solarcon as a flagship event for the Indian solar PV industry, Dr. Bharat Bhargava, director – Photovoltaics, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Government of India, said that the policies and programs started by the Indian government are now yielding results.The Jawaharlal Nehru-National Solar Mission has seen the participation of the industry, the academia and the funding agencies, showing that the success of the program lies in the hands of the people involved. When the Indian solar PV industry started, the country was said to have only 2MW. By the end of October this year, India had 125 MW. By 2013, it will likely reach 2GW, according to Dr. Bhargava.

He apprised the audience regarding the REC (renewable energy certificate) program. Initially, the REC was for three years, but was later extended to five years. As of now, experts are consulting to enable it to increase to seven years. He estimated that the Indian solar PV industry might even go up to 100GW, instead of 20GW, and encouraged everyone to work together and make this happen.

Francisco J. Sanchez, Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, USA, stated that a lot of excitement is in the air! “We are committed to India and its solar industry. There are opportunities to do big things in this industry.” He added that solar has achieved a triple bottom line.According to Sanchez, the solar industry is worth $17 billion in India and it is growing. India is spending $19 billion by 2022 to produce 20GW of solar energy. There will be a lot of engineers, manufacturers, etc., who can monitor and contribute to the growth of the industry. He advised that India will need to add 150GW of capacity over the next five years. Therefore, India is well placed to seize opportunities with trade partnerships.

He said: “The US government fully supports India’s clean energy initiative. There is an abundance of opportunities in solar. We can achieve much more in partnerships. We are committed to working with you. It is a huge opportunity for both countries.

“Some of the obstacles include repositioning for success, where companies indulge in unfair trade practices. When the market is open for competition, it creates thousands of jobs, and the market is growing quickly, helping many. It is all about chance and choice. We have a chance to build a great industry. We need to work together in partnership and share value. We will work together for the good of India and its consumers. We hope that India will take the same approach. India now has the chance to build an exciting industry for the future.”

Solarcon India 2011 begins with record exhibitors

Presenting the excerpts from the welcome address by Debasish Paul Choudhury, president, SEMI India, at the ongoing Solarcon India 2011, being held in Hyderabad.

This year’s show features a larger exhibition, a three-day dual track conference, and will feature three concurrent technical programs. The theme for this year’s exposition, representing the widening solar value chain in India, is “Showcasing the Solar Eco‐System: From Polysilicon to Power Plants.”The exhibition with over 115 exhibitors from eight countries, compared to 81 exhibitors in SOLARCON India 2010, covers the entire solar value chain, will provide you an opportunity to see a wide range of new products and services offered by Indian and international companies, under one roof.

This year’s show, as many of you are aware, is certified by the US Department of Commerce (US DOC), and features an exclusive US Pavilion with 14 leading US companies participating in the exhibition. I am also delighted to welcome a 35-member Clean Tech Delegation led by the United States of America’s Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, Francisco J. Sanchez to the show.

I am delighted to have in our midst two other distinguished guests – Dr. Bharat Bhargava, director – Photovoltaics, Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Government of India, who is widely credited to be the architect of the India’s National Solar Mission. In the same vein, I am happy to welcome Jim Brown, president, Utility Systems Business Group, First Solar Inc., the world’s largest thin film module manufacturer, with us this morning.

Featuring more than 70 speakers drawn from the industry, academia and government, the conference is themed "Charting India's Roadmap to Solar Leadership — Translating Potential into Reality." The conference attracts high-profile participation of solar energy leaders from all segments of the industry supply chain, academia and governments from India and around the world.

The three-day conference also includes an LED Lighting summit, co-organized with Frost & Sullivan, which will focus on SSL (solid state lighting) technology with speakers from among LED manufacturers, LED suppliers, researchers and others.

The climate in which we are holding the show this year has not been without its challenges – on two fronts: the events in Hyderabad on the one hand (which have now, we are grateful to all parties involved, returned to complete normalcy) and the considerable stress that the solar industry is under due the slowdown in the European economies, regulatory changes in the major solar markets and manufacturing over capacity resulting in a fall in PV system prices over the last two to three quarters. This show and the support it has received are proof that the long term prospects for the solar industry remain most bright in India.

NASSCOM announces top 10 start-ups to watch!

On the eve of the NASSCOM Product Conclave 2011, to be held in Bangalore, on Nov. 9-10, 2011, NASSCOM (National Association of Software and Services Companies) announced the list of the top 10 start-ups to watch.

These top 10 start-ups are:
1. Pawaa Software -- Pawaa
2. QuickoLabs -- SearchEnabler
3. Persistent Systems Ltd -- eMee
4. Imaginate -- Imaginate
5. Srijan Technologies Pvt Ltd -- DROWPS
6. Conwerge Web Services Pvt Ltd -- Grupur.com
7. Semgel Technologies Pvt Ltd -- Semgel
8. Openweb Labs Pvt Ltd -- HirePlug, Getlive.me
9. Ozonetel Systems Pvt Ltd -- KooKoo
10. NRich Software Pvt Ltd -- DiaSof.

Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011's estimate falls $2.74 billion

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011's HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011's actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months' reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS's September HBR, September's actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month's published HBR.

Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion. This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010's YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The Cowan LRA model's sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month's model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model's September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent, which marginally improved from last month's sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry's September's actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model's previous month's forecasted expectation. This suggests that 2011's sales growth could continue to trend downward for the remainder of this year relative to this month's 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below.

Microsoft launches developer program for Windows Phone

Microsoft has launched a program for developers where they can build applications (apps) for mobile and win a Windows Phone. It also showcased some of the latest Windows Phones from leading handset vendors.

Microsoft calls the Windows Phone as People vs. Icons -- it puts people first. The mobile phone itself has a load of features, such as People Hub, Groups, Threads, Better email, Calendar, Bing Vision, IE9 and Pictures Hub. There's more, in form of XBOX Live, Multitasking, Music + Videos, Custom Ringtones, Office 365, Live Tiles, Voice to text, My Windows Phone, SharePoint, Local Scout, Remote Wipe.

According to Harish Vaidyanathan, Microsoft, the company has moved up from zero (0) to 30,000 apps in just 12 months.

Microsoft also highlighted 'i Unlock Joy' for students. The Windows Phone is designed to put people in the center – making it easier for them to connect and share with friends, family and colleagues, so they never miss a moment. Here’s your chance to unlock your creativity -- build apps for the latest Windows Phone, and win the latest mobile phone.

Microsoft has unveiled a program for developers and students where they can participate and build apps, and win a Windows Phone. For students, the program runs till December 31, 2011, while it runs till March 31, 2012 for developers.

Windows Phone will present your apps to people in smarter and easier ways. The new Metro UI design helps developers create breathtaking apps and makes them easier to discover and use. “I Unlock Joy” program is definitely your chance to become the users’ favourite and get a brand new Windows Phone.

Developers can download the complete set of developer tools to build Windows Phone apps. They can choose the tools and technology for app development. They can also become a member of the Windows Phone Marketplace with an annual membership fee of $99 and get access to the App Hub and certification process.

Developers can submit an unlimited number of certified paid apps and up to 100 free apps as registered App Hub member.

In case you are a woman developer, you have a chance to win a Windows Phone by developing just 1 app (for first 100 female participants). Women are required to submit their apps on the Marketplace by March 31, 2012.

To participate, be aware that you are a technology professional – software developer, project manager or software architect – working and residing in India. You are not an employee, intern, agent or a relative of an employee of Microsoft Corp. (India) or Microsoft Corp. or any of their affiliates; You are not involved in any part of the execution or administration of this program.

You can participate in the program by:
* Submitting three (3) new Windows Phone Apps that get published at the Windows Phone Marketplace by March 31, 2012;
* Submitting two (2) new Windows Phone Apps that you have ported from existing Android and/or iPhone apps, which get published at the Marketplace by March 31, 2012; and
* If you are a woman developer, submitting one (1) new Windows Phone App based on Entertainment, Fashion, Leisure, Gaming, Recreation or Travel Themes, which gets published at the Marketplace by March 31, 2012.

So, fill up the Registration Form posted on Microsoft's website with all the required information. You need to register on the App Hub with a $99 annual membership fee, which entitles you to publish and manage apps at Windows Phone Marketplace. Your app should get certified on App Hub and published at Windows Phone Marketplace on or before March 31, 2012.

To participate, developers need to go through the application submission checklist.

PS: I shall refrain from commenting on the Windows Phone, for now! ;)

PV inverter -- innovations and market trends

France's Yole Développement, recently organized a seminar on PV inverter - technical innovations and market trends. The speakers were Brice Legouic, Power Electronics Market & Technology Analyst, Yole and Paul Kleistead, Cree.

What are the trends for 2011-12? According to Legouic, one, a first step of standardization should take place at the added functionalities level. This includes MPP positioning with advanced solutions, monitoring, and anti-theft and protection. Two, players with a higher level of product quality will enter the EU market. These include Japanese players focusing on efficiency and reliability, but with more expensive inverters.

Yole also anticipates a double speed business to take place. If the residential segment is opened to Chinese manufacturers and industrial/solar farms are dedicated to high-end products, the PV inverter market would become two different markets.

Speaking about market trends, he said that trends will be driven by reduction of feed-in tariff, which hurries the end users to sign contracts. Over 2 million are likely to be sold in 2012. The total market in 2010 was slightly below €3.3 billion, and will overpass €3.5 billion by 2012.

Over 75 percent of the market is owned by the top 10 PV inverter players. Five of these are German, eight are European, and two are American. Eighty percent of EU inverters are made in Europe and 20 percent are made in the USA. Asian players will likely increase their supply for the EU market. Japanese players currently have very small implantation in the EU. However, Yole believes that their market share would reach 15 percent within the next three years.

On technological trends, Legouic touched upon the neutral-point-clamped (NPC) architecture. The NPC architecture uses diode to clamp the DC bus voltage in two equal voltages. The benefits are:
* allowing the use of lower 600V devices instead of 1200V,
* reducing dynamic losses, and
* SJ MOS can be used for outer switches for their higher frequency performances.

The NPC architecture is nearly always used for 10-50kW inverters.

Using the SiC free-wheeling diode can increase efficiency from up to 2 percent. More and more are used for low- to medium-power range. Benefits include much better recovery time and reduction in IGBT switching losses.

On the DC/DC stage component chart, he added that according to STMicroelectronics, we can assume that when the maximum input voltage of an inverter is below 650V, the DC/DC stage is MOSFET-based. Over 650V, the inverter can be considered to be built with a 1200V IGBT.

As for implementation of new technologies, such as SiC vs. GaN, 900-1200V will be the targeted range for over 10kW inverters. SiC diodes are already implemented in residential and commercial inverters.

In 2012, silicon will represent more than 90 percent of the modules market, and about 75 percent of the wafer market. SiC will be mostly driven by diodes. Components will be at an early stage of adoption.

Brice Legouic concluded that micro-inverters are also a place for technical innovation. Enphase is a global leader with about 30 percent market share in the US residential segment. The conversion architecture is totally different from standard inverters. The SiC diodes are implemented and represent a huge market for device makers as micro-inverter quantities are important.

Other expected products have shown significant improvements in the integration of the same silicon chip of several functions, such as command and driver IC, power conversion and RF components for communications in a PV plant.

Solar installations: How long will boom last?

Dr. Henning Wicht, senior director and principal analyst, PV, IHS iSuppli Corp., presented a paper at PV Taiwan 2011. Let’s take a look at how long is the boom in solar installations likely to last!

According to Dr. Wicht, the solar market is forecasted to reach 21.9 GW in 2011. In 2011, global installations will record again and reach 21.9 GW. Germany and Italy will remain the leading markets. The USA and China are growing strongly. Worldwide PV installation forecast, updated May 20, 2011 is currently at around 25 percent. It will then likely dip to -10 percent in 2012, before finally moving up to 32-33 percent in 2015. The upside potential of 6.5 GW in 2012 may result in 27 GW of installations.

Installations in 2012 are forecasted at 20.5 GW (-11 percent). However, historically the photovoltaic market never declined. Even in 2009, the most challenging year, the market grew by 33 percent. Can it repeat again?

In that case, what’s the situation in the world right now? He replied: “In China, the support of domestic supplier industry will be the driver, while there will be expansion of solar subsidy programs. The forecast for 2012 is 2.4GW and the upside potential for 2012 is 1 GW. Germany will see pro REE politics. There will be re-opening of the ground installation market segment; and lifting of installation target to 5 GW, the upper edge of the target corridor. The 2012 forecast is 5 GW and the upside potential for 2012 is 1 GW. Italy will also see pro REE politics. There will likely be a target corridor of 2-3 GW. The 2012 forecast is 2.5 GW and the upside potential is 2 GW.”

Also, Japan will see pro REE politics. There will be an expansion of solar subsidy programs. The 2012 forecast is 1.6 GW and the upside potential is 1 GW. The rest of the world (RoW) will see an enhanced support of REE at the expense of nuclear energy. There will also be implementation of incentives and funding for solar. The 2012 forecast is 9 GW and the upside potential is 1.5 GW. In total, the realistic upside potential (50 percent) is estimated at 24 GW for 2012, and the total upside potential is estimated at 27 GW.

“Now, if we re-look at the global PV installation forecast, it is likely to be 21.9 GW in 2011, 24.17 GW in 2012, 28.23 GW in 2013, 32.3 GW in 2014 and 43.05 GW in 2015. In 2011, the installations in Europe will reach 63 percent, but will decrease to 33 percent in 2015.”

Let’s have a look at the emerging solar/PV market situation at the moment. According to Wicht, the solar emerging markets in 2014 include: Americas at 1,300 MW, Europe/Middle East at 2,150 MW, Africa at 950 MW, Asia 3,440 MW and Australia 775 MW.

So, where are prices going for modules, cells, wafers and poly? He said: “First, module prices will not stop falling. At the end of Q3 2011, modules are offered at 0.8€/W (factory gate). The residential systems are priced at 2.0€/W in Germany.”

The year end 2011 forecast, as of July 2011 shows the silicon (spot) price at $50-55/kg, wafer at $0.54/Wp (multi), cell at $0.80/Wp (for tier 2 players) and module at EUR 0.85/Wp (multi, top 10 players). The year end 2011 forecast, as of Sept. 2011 will show silicon (spot) price at $48-55/kg, wafer at $0.43~0.48/Wp (multi), cell at $0.72/Wp (for tier 2 players) and module: at EUR 0.80/Wp (top 10 players). Currently, the most profitable segments of the value chain lies at the tail ends in polysilicon and in the balance of system/inverter.