Semicon outlook 2009: Global market could be down 7pc or more

Friends, I've just got off a very interesting, but predictable, webcast on the outlook for the global semiconductor industry organized by Semiconductor International.

The news coming out of this webcast is not very good for the industry. And as the moderator commented toward the end, I'd say too, "I hope these guys are all terribly wrong!"

All of the experts, as listed below, have predicted a dismal 2009 for the global semiconductor industry, starting from a negative 7 percent or more!

For everyone's information, the participating experts at the webcast were:

* Moshe Handelsman, President, Advanced Forecasting Inc.
* Aida Jebens, Senior Economist, VLSI Research Inc.
* Carl Johnson, Executive Director, Research Infrastructure.
* Dale Ford, Senior Vice President, Market Intelligence, iSuppli Corp.
* Lara Chamness, Senior Market Analyst, Industry Research and Statistics, SEMI.

So, the key question: What is the global semiconductor industry going to look like in 2009?

Semicon -7pc down in 2009 or more?
VLSI Research's Aida Jebens said that they are pegging electronics as either flat or negative for 2009. The semiconductor market would be down 7 percent as well. It could be worse, she added, depending on how the November and December 2008 numbers come out to be!

iSuppli's Dale Ford was cautious, given that the firm has not yet announced its forecast publicly. (I've discussed the industry at length earlier, with Dale Ford.) As for guidance, he said that iSuppli sees the electronic equipment market declining roughly in the 1pc range.

With regard to semiconductors, iSuppli had given some interim guidance with the industry turning down 9.4 percent. He added that in iSuppli's final forecast, it could be more negative, although, not double digit negative. However, he added, "We do see growth coming down nearly to that range."

Handelsman from Advanced Forecasting, added that while his company's policy was not to divulge the exact numbers, except to their clients, he provided insights that there will be decline for ICs in revenues, which will be larger than 2008. Regarding equipment, the decline will be significantly larger than what other sources believe it will be. This is quite discouraging, folks!

Research Infrastructure's Carl Johnson, while calling numbers as a moving target, provided some guidance as well. According to him, the electronics equipment sales will be down, close to 10 percent.

Even the IC sales will be down, close to the 15 percent range. In the capital equipment business, the numbers are not going to be good either. Johnson said that it could probably be at least a 30 percent decline in 2009. There are also chances that the industry might even approach the numbers that it reached during the downturns in the mid nineties!

Finally, SEMI's Lara Chamness, closed in on the outlook for semiconductor equipment and materials. According to her, for semiconductor equipment, 2009 will definitely be a negative year, somewhere around -22 percent! For semiconductor materials, SEMI is looking at -1 percent decline in 2009.

Tough times ahead for solar?
There's a bit more than this to add in this blog, especially on the analysts take on solar.

Maybe, those investing in solar, in India, need to see this as well, and take all of the necessary steps, if required. With the kind of financial crisis that we are currently in, people are definitely going to have problems getting credit.

According to VLSI Research's Aida Jebens, there could be a tough time for solar in 2009. It will pick up, but not in the next two years.

Right then folks, that's all for now! You have seen the numbers that will matter! I shall try and update this outlook 2009 report on semiconductors sometime later!