Indian semiconductor market to reach $7.59bn by 2010!

Folks, here's the full report on the India Semiconductor Association - Frost & Sullivan study on the Indian semiconductor industry. I've already provided my views on the Indian semiconductor industry report in an earlier post, for those who would like to know more.

First, the findings:
• The Total Semiconductor Market (TM) revenues poised to grow from $5.9 billion in 2008 to $7.59 billion in 2010. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 13.4 percent.
• The corresponding period is likely to witness a CAGR of 13.1 percent in the Total Semiconductor Available Market (TAM). TAM revenues is anticipated to climb to $3.24 billion in 2010 from $2.53 in 2008.

The following chart details how the Indian semiconductor industry is likely to shape up till 2010. All values are in US $ billion.

According to the study:
• Memory and MPU are the leaders in the TM and TAM revenues, respectively.
• IT/OA, wireless handsets and communications are the top three contributors to the TM revenues.
• IT/OA, wireless handsets and consumer are the mainstay of TAM revenue generation.
• Greater affordability of notebooks, netbooks, government IT initiatives, increased usage of memory cards to drive TM revenues from IT/OA. Ratio of desktops to notebooks reduces to 1:5
• Emphasis on rural mobile telephony and decline in handset pricesto drive demand; economically priced handsets in GSM and CDMA to witness higher growth. Mid priced handset segment, with enhanced features, to benefit.
• Rollout of 3G and WiMAX services to act as harbinger of associated infrastructure equipment TM. SDH 64 to increasingly replace SDH 4 and SDH 16. Increased manufacturing expected to favor TAM revenues.
• Evolving lifestyle expected to assist consumer electronics related semiconductor TM. DTH revolution creates demand for STB like never before. The market is expected to sustain as technology upgrades from MPEG2 to MPEG4.
• Projects like national ID cards, bank cards and kisan cards are likely to favor the semiconductor usage in emerging segment of smart cards.
• Low manufacturing index leads to opportunity loss of $3.37 billion semiconductor market revenues. This loss anticipated to increase to $4.35 billion by 2010.
• Immense, yet untapped, opportunities exist for semiconductors in STBs, LCD TVs, digital cameras and storage Flash memory markets.
• Decline in semiconductor product prices result in lower revenue realization; key semiconductor products impacted are memory, MCU and discrete. Increase in memory usage in a variety of products to offset revenue loss on accountof decline in prices.
• Increased usage of system-on-chip (SoC) leads to decline in the overall revenues. Though the decline is not proportionate to the reduction of components, the impact is significant.
• Higher penetration of notebooks to impact market for desktops and offline UPS
• Current slowdown to impact overall growth and manufacturing investment prospects for 2009; uncertainty in government decision-making adversely affects growth.

Some of the other forecasts of the report indicate that India will likely improve its share to 2.8 percent of the global semiconductor market by 2010. Also, the India market CAGR forecast is at 6.4 times the global market CAGR, over next two years !

Again, do not get carried away by these statistics!

Further, in an update to the 2007 forecast, the previous study had non-inclusion of select products segments such as digital cameras, power supplies, CFL, CCTV, PoS, Weighing Scale, etc., which have been now added. This update sees the entry of new players and an unprecedented expansion of the DTH market. Migration of select products manufacturing outside the country has also taken place.

The total TM and TAM revenue constituents (2008) are: TM revenues: $5,901.8 million; and TAM revenues: $2,531.8 million. Now, for the segment wise break-ups and segment drivers, respectively.

IT/OA semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $2,503.4 million; TAM revenues: $1,161.3 million.
* Notebooks, desktops and servers were the key contributors to the MPU, memory and ASSP TM revenues.
* Desktops are key revenue generators for MPU TAM revenues.
* CAGR for IT/OA is TM at 13.5 percent and TAM at 7.4 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM are government IT initiatives, low priced notebooks, netbooks and storage flash memory; while low priced desktops and LCD monitors are the drivers for TAM.

Wireless handsets semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $1,738.3 million; TAM revenues: $791 million.
* DSP and ASSP to ride on growth of economically priced handsets in GSM and CDMA.
* Smartphones in GSM to drive growth of TM revenues for memory, DSP and ASSP.
* CAGR for wireless handsets is TM at 5.7 percent and TAM at 5.1 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM and TAM include GSM handsets priced <$125 and between $125-250, as well as CDMA handsets priced <$125. For TM, GSM handsets priced >$250 is the key driver.

Communications semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $754 million; TAM Revenues: $153.9 million.
* WiMAX BTS is the driver for ASIC market.
* Infrastructure equipment like WiMAX and STM were the key factors behind analog power's TM and TAM revenues.
* Logic/FPGA rode on the STM and BTS markets.
* Low manufacturing index conspicuous in this key segment.
* CAGR for communications is TM at 27.9 percent and TAM at 64.1 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM and TAM include the rollout of 3G, WiMAX and penetration of broadband services. For TAM, BTS, STM and WiMAX are the major drivers.

Consumer semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $432.9 million; TAM revenues: $165.6 million.
* ASSP market growth on account of penetration of LCD into CRT TVs, STBs and DVD players.
* Low manufacturing index indicates lost opportunity for semiconductor revenues.
* CAGR for consumer equipment is TM at 12.2 percent and TAM at 18.7 percent for 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM include STBs, LCD TVs and digital cameras, while those for TAM include STBs, LCD TVs and water purifiers.

Industrial semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $144.9 million; TAM revenues: $106.7 million.
* Energy meters, UPS and weighing scales are the contributors to the MCUs.
* Discrete and analog power are omnipresent products across applications.
* CAGR for industrial electronics segment is TM at 12.5 percent and TAM at 14.9 percent for the period 2008-10.
* Key drivers for TM include online UPS, CFL, energy meters and power supplies. Those for TAM include energy meters, CFL and power supplies.

Automotive semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $76.5 million; TAM revenues: $50.8 million.
* The MCU market has high dependence on the EMS and body electronics markets
* The Nano car, statutory regulations on emission norms, and safety features are likely to sustain demand.
* CAGR for automotive electronics is TM at 23.1 percent and TAM at 24.8 percent.
* Key drivers include two-wheeler instrument clusters, EMS and immobilizers.

Other electronics semiconductor constituents (2008)
TM revenues: $251.7 million; TAM revenues: $102.5 million.
* Applications like smart cards, and aerospace and defence are driving the ASSP TM and TAM revenues, respectively.
* CAGR for this segment is TM at 16.8 percent and TAM at 23.8 percent.
* Smart cards and government space research programs are the key drivers.