Cowan’s LRA model’s global semiconductor sales forecast

Continuing with my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry, here’s the global semiconductor industry sales forecasts, by Mike Cowan. Here, I’d like to acknowledge Mike for sharing his findings and thank him for his continuous tracking of the semiconductor industry.

The presently updated global S/C sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently published August 2009 actual sales numbers released by the WSTS (posted on their website on Oct 6 (http://www.wsts.org/public/files/bbhist-23.xls).

The table details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next six quarters, that is, from 3Q09 through 4Q10, respectively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.Source: Mike Cowan

As the table shows, the latest forecast updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates both increased by +1.5 percent to $208.5 billion and $225.4 billion, respectively, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $205.4 billion and $222.1 billion, respectively.

The updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimates of -16.1 percent and +8.1 percent, respectively, which represent a continuing improvement compared to last month’s sales growth prediction of -17.4 percent for 2009, but maintaining the status quo for 2010 at +8.1 percent.

Sources: Actuals => WSTS; Forecasts => Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Oct 2009)

It should be highlighted that the actual cumulative YTD (through August) sales number of $133.82 billion represents a YTD sales decline of 21.3 percent relative to last year’s August actual cumulative YTD sales of $170.12 billion.

Therefore, the latest model run projects an improvement in 2009’s full year’s sales growth estimate (of -16.1 percent) relative to August’s 2009 actual cumulative YTD sales growth decline (of 21.3 percent).

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Additionally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for September, 2009. Thus September’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $21.15 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $19.68 billion as normally published by the SIA.