Wednesday, September 29, 2010

NComputing bets big on desktop virtualization

NComputing, the virtual desktop company, has 2.5 million virtual desktops deployed, and boasts over 100,000 customers across 140+ countries.

Jim McHugh, senior VP, Global Marketing, NComputing, said that the desktop is now evolving with applications. Also, software applications are evolving away from the PC. Server virtualization had taken off a few years ago. Now, it is the time for desktop virtualization. Time for the CIOs to become rock stars all over again!

So, what is NComputing's desktop strategy?

Well, the first is to replace full PCs at each desk with simple access devices that connect to virtual desktops running on central PCs or servers.

NComputing's vSpace desktop virtualization software divides a computer's resources into independent virtual workspaces that give each user his or her own rich PC experience. vSpace handles the desktop display and remote activities from the user's keyboard and mouse (through the access device). Multiple users simultaneous access a single operating system, either Windows or Linux.

"Our vSpace software creates multiple user workspaces in the OS. We provide heterogenous platform support -- Windows and Linux," McHugh added. There are three virtualization infrastructure options -- VMWare, Microsoft and Citrix.

NComputing provides three ways to connect by way of access devices. These are:

L-series (Ethernet): The NComputing solution separates a desktop PC environment from a physical machine to create a client-server computing model. That is, a user's desktop is hosted remotely and accessed via a access device over the network. A user no longer has a physical PC. It can connect up to 30 users on a single computer!

U-series (USB): The revolutionary new U-series are the simplest of all to connect, because they simply plug into standard USB ports. There are no network switches to buy and no PCI cards to install. For smaller installations, the NComputing U-series are simplest and quickest to install. I think that 2-5 users can connect using this.

X-series (PCI card): The NComputing X-series connects through a PCI card installed into the shared PC. This direct connection doesn't use a network, so multimedia performance is superb. Ideal when the users are in the same room as the shared computer. Eleven people can share a single system.

The software and devices are easy to set up and secure. They help cut PC acquisition costs. These work with standard software and peripherals. Also, they save space/resources >90 percent.

As for the vSpace software itself, no specialized hardware is required. It virtualizes only the core components required. It dynamically detects, compresses and accelerates multimedia. Finally, it is hardware agnostic.

Seems these are good solutions for enterprises, SMEs, branch offices, education, emerging markets and tough environments -- such as factories, call centers, healthcare, etc. NComputing typically looks at four types of enterprise deployments -- express VDI, enhanced VDI, VDI with connection brokering and integration with published applications (Citrix).

In India, NComputing has a great success story in ESIC (Employee State Insurance Co.). NComputing has done 31,000 stations in over 2,000 locations along with Wipro. Some other success stories include Macedonia -- the world's largest deployment of access devices -- 200,000 student seats, and the Obama 2008 campaign.

Monday, September 20, 2010

NXP driving automotive electronics toward energy efficiency

NXP recently organized an Automotive Technology Day at its Bangalore campus. I shall focus on the points made by Ashok Chandak, senior director, Global Sales and Marketing, NXP Semiconductors on how global trends are challenging the society.According to him, the key macro growth drivers in electronics include energy efficiency, connected mobile devices, securty and health. He also highlighted how HPMS or high-performance mixed signal is driving innovation at NXP.

NXP provides HPMS and standard product solutions that leverage its leading RF, analog, power management, interface, security and digital processing expertise.

Commenting on the BRIC market for automotives, he said that the BRIC market has been projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.1 percent vs. total market of 5 percent for the period 2010-17. Also, BRIC's share of the global car production has been estimated to grow from 31 percent in 2010 to 34 percent by 2017.

Motivation in India has been the the fast growing automotive market and the increasing electronic content in automotives.

Drivers of innovation in automotive
The drivers of innovation in automotive include seamless connectivity, increased safety, sustainable mobility and affordability, and increased comfort. NXP has been striving to significantly address all of these.

Chandak also highlighted five examples that are driving significant fuel efficiency improvement. These include: electric power steering, eco telematics, body networks, transmission, and start/stop systems. Again, NXP provides dedicated solutions that are driving efficiency in conventional, as well as hybrid and electric cars.

He also touched upon some of NXP's innovations. These include -- electric power steering, which saves fuel consumption and CO2 emission 10g/km; dual clutch transmission, which saves fuel consumption and CO2 emission up to 10 percent; start/stop systems, which are micro-hybrid and also save fuel consumption and CO2 emission by 4-10 percent.

Body electronics is yet another NXP innovation. Partial networking is enabled since the ECUs are only active when a function is needed. This also extends the range of an electric car. The potential energy saving is up to 70W. NXP has also enabled eco-telematics by way of a telematics on-board unit. A feature includes intelligent traffic management, which saves fuel consumption and CO2 emission up to 16 percent.

Chandak added that 'electrification' is a technical mega trend. Vehicle efficiency is driving electrification. Innovations in electronics are driving the car toward energy efficiency.

Overview of emerging power management opportunities

First, I must thank my friends, Lou Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, and Aabid Husain, VP of sales and marketing, from Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor, for sharing the presentations made during an EETimes virtual conference on emerging power management opportunities held on Sept. 16.

The conference participants were:
* Stephan Ohr, panel moderator and research director, Analog and Power Semiconductors, Gartner Inc.
* John Pigott, Freescale fellow, and analog IC guru and designer, Freescale Semiconductor.
* Ralf J. Muenster, director strategy and business development, National Semiconductor.
* Wayne Chen, VP for Technology and Operations, Triune Systems.
* Lou N. Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor.

Ohr started by indicating Gartner's position on power management products. The standard analog ICs were a $15.2 billion market globally in 2009. Voltage regulators made up $7,394 billion, amplifiers $2,675 billion, data converters $2,567 billion, other analog $1,331 billion, and interface ICs $1,198 billion, respectively.

Voltage regulators – power management ICs accounted for 48.8 percent of the analog market. Voltage regulators continue to show strongest growth, growing at a CAGR of 11.1 percent for the period 2009-2014.

Power management ICs forecast
The global revenue forecast for power management ICs by market segment is as follows:

Military and aerospace: This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 3.2 percent during 2009-14.
Industrial/medical: This is likely to grow from $1,118 million in 2009 to $1,779 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Automotive: This is likely to grow from $415 million in 2009 to $622 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 8.4 percent.
Communications: This is likely to grow from $529 million in 2009 to $988 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.3 percent.
Wireless: This is likely to grow from $1,353 million in 2009 to $2,149 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Storage: This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 13.3 percent during 2009-14.
Computing: This is likely to grow from $2,114 million in 2009 to $4,013 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.7 percent.
Consumer: This is likely to grow from $1,627 million in 2009 to $2,564 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.5 percent.

Server and wired communications remain the biggest drivers.

Emergence of BCD technology
Lou Hutter from Dongbu HiTek discussed the technology considerations for emerging power management markets. He focused on the emergence of BCD (Bipolar/CMOS/DMOS) technology.

There are multiple benefits of BCD. These include integration of bipolar, CMOS, and DMOS components. It enables the integration of logic, analog control, and power on same die. It also enables high-and low-voltage, and high-and low-power functions on same die. BCD further enables reduced chip count, and improves reliability through fewer package interconnects. It also enables reduced BOM costs.

Emerging markets, such as automotive, solar and energy harvesting, stand to benefit from BCD. Dongbu is offering the 0.18um platform, which boasts of IP portability and more. Dongbu is offering the BD180LV-30V power process (Epi), to be followed by the BD180LV-30V power process (Non-Epi) in 3Q10, the BD180X 40-60V power process in 4Q10, and finally, the HP180 precision analog in 2Q11.

Hutter explained the BD180LV-30V Optimized Power and BD180X – 60V Optimized Power processes. Optional modules in Dongbu Hitek's BCD technology include Schottky Diode, thick Cu, PLDMOS, NVM, low power CMOS, low noise CMOS.

Active power management for solar, EVs
Muenster of National Semiconductor, discussed the active power management for solar systems and electric vehicles. According to him, BRIC is set to beat rich nations in energy use by 2030. Energy megatrend will shape the next decade. The energy triangle comprises energy generation, energy storage and energy conservation.

National's vision in solar includes increasing energy efficiency. Innovation in power electronics can now improve energy output of solar arrays. Muenster also gave an example of how SolarMagic technology works. SolarMagic power optimizer maximizes the effectiveness of solar panels under variable light conditions.

Energy storage is required for high penetration of alternative energy sources. The number of HEVs, PHEVs and EVs produced is likely to double by 2013. The semiconductor content in EVs is also expected to be 10X.

Innovative IC technologies provide solutions to the challenges of increased global energy demand and environmental protection.

Semicon needs for HEV battery management
John Pigott of Freescale touched upon the semiconductor requirements for HEV battery management. He also presented an overview of tthe HV battery management requirements hierarchy.

Pigott highlighted Freescale AMPD automotive. The key proposition is integration (SoC and SIP) with a foundation of mixed-signal power technologies and extensive automotive know-how.

nanoSmart ultra low-power analog
Chen from Triune Systems, highlighted the nanoSmart – the ultra low-power analog. The company focuses on green solutions in low power.

Enormous energy is lost every second due to power management in electronic systems. Also, an estimated 5-15 percent of global household power consumption is standby power loss. Innovation is necessary in this space.

The key is to create a near lossless power system that can efficiently manage and store small levels of energy scavenged from the environment over time, and then deliver a reliable energy source, when needed.

He added that Triune's nanoSmart technology, patent pending, is currently sampling and is under evaluation with customers.

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Cowan LRA model: Overview plus latest global semicon sales forecast numbers

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

August 2010′s ‘actual’ global semiconductor sales numbers are scheduled to be released by the WSTS, namely the August HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about October 4.

In anticipation of the WSTS release Cowan has shared an analysis feature of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales; namely, the ability to provide a ‘look ahead’ scenario analysis for 2010′s global semiconductor sales forecast as a function of next month’s (in this case August’s) actual global semi sales estimate.

The specifics of the scenario analysis are presented in the following paragraphs and detailed in the scenario analysis matrix table provided here.Source: Cowan's LRA model.

In order to demonstrate this capability, Cowan has selected a range in possible August 2010 sales; in this particular scenario analysis, a sales range from $23.95 billion to $26.95 billion in increments of $0.5 billion was chosen as listed in the first column of the table.

This estimated range of actual sales is ‘centered around’ the actual August sales forecast estimate of $25.448 billion as determined by last month’s (July) run of the model. The corresponding August 3MMA sales forecast estimate that the model put forth is $25.723 billion.

The overall year 2010 sales forecast estimate for each assumed estimated August sales number over the selected range of August actual sales estimates is calculated by the model, and is shown in the second column of the table.

The third column reveals the resulting yr-o-yr sales growth estimates compared to year 2009′s actual sales (of $226.3 billion).

The fourth and fifth columns show the corresponding three Month Moving Average (3MMA) sales estimate and the associated year-on-year sales growth relative to August 2009′s 3MMA sales (of $19.381 billion), respectively.

Finally, the sixth column lists the associated Momentum Indicator (MI), which is defined and discussed below.

July 2010’s actual semiconductor sales (of $24.568 billion) came in higher (by $1.180 billion) than the model’s last month’s July 2010 sales forecast estimate (of $23.388 billion) representing a plus 5 percent delta comparing July 2010′s actual sales number (published by the WSTS) to the projected forecast estimate ‘put forth’ by the Cowan LRA forecasting model and reported last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model’s MI.

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for a given month — in this case July 2010’s just published actual global sales of $24.568 billion and the forecasted sales estimate for July 2010, that is, $23.388 billion, which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from the previous month’s prediction derived by the model’s linear regression analysis of the past 26 years of historical, actual monthly global “sales experience” as gathered and published, each month, by the WSTS.

Note: August 2010’s sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion.

Therefore, the table above reveals that depending on the actual WSTS to-be-released August 2010 global semiconductor sales number, the forecasted 2010 sales estimate, as determined by the model, could vary between $303.19 billion and $307.90 billion, while the corresponding 2009 –> 2010 sales growth estimate could vary between 34 percent and 36 percent, respectively.

Also note that the previously published Cowan LRA Model’s 2010 sales forecast update, which was based upon July 2010′s actual sales (of $24.568 billion), came in at $305.729 billion, corresponding to a sales growth forecast estimate of 35.1 percent as summarized earlier.

Using this analysis capability, the model provides a ‘sensitivity output’ of the ‘expected’ 2010 sales forecast (and year-on-year forecasted sales growth) as a function of the yet-to-be-published actual August sales number.

Therefore, employing the table, one can a-priori “select” an August sales number (in the range shown) and immediately see what the model would predict for a 2010 sales forecast estimate along with its corresponding sales growth expectation in advance of the actual to-be-published final August sales result.

Stay tuned for the WSTS to publish (expected on Oct. 4, 2010) the actual August 2010 sales numbers. One can then ascertain the model’s latest forecast outlook as abstracted (or extrapolated) from the table even before Cowan runs his model and subsequently publishes the updated forecast numbers based upon August’s actual sales results.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Strategic roadmap for electronics enabling energy efficient usage: Venkat Rajaraman, Su-Kam

I am very grateful to Venkat Rajaraman, CEO, Su-kam Power Systems Ltd, for sharing his thoughts, as well as those of Dr. Ajay Mathur, director general, Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), presented at the India Semiconductor Association's (ISA) conference titled 'Electronics enabling Energy Efficiency E3', in New Delhi.

In his presentation, Rajaraman said that if Graham Bell were alive today, he won’t recognize his invention. Mobile devices have changed, the switching technology is vastly different and so is the communication medium.

However, if Thomas Alva Edison were alive today, he would be very happy. He would see his invention in pretty much the same form. Of course, there are more generating stations, more transmission and distribution lines, but the technology is fundamentally the same.

This scenario is quite changing. Yesterday’s era was all about industrialization - more automation, less labor, etc. Also, the more energy you consume, the lesser it costs to produce. Energy was considered inexhaustible then. Now, there is a paradigm shift. It is all about energy conservation! We know that the energy cost is rising and the resources are finite.

The energy industry will change more over the next 15 years than it has in the last 100! The decisions made now to the next few years will determine whether the transition is considered a success!

So, these changes are not about simple energy efficient appliances, smart meters, renewables, etc. It requires a complete socio-economic and mindset change, and that’s the hard part of the problem.

Su-Kam has been doing simple interventions regarding energy efficiency – such as, replacing DG sets with inverters, LED lighting, etc.

Rajaraman added that there seem to be far too many stakeholders in energy efficiency implementations -- financial Institutions, technologies solution providers, beneficiary industries, energy audit companies, measurement and verification systems, government/subsidy bodies, etc.

A plant owner is not attracted enough to make the investment in energy efficiency. There are questions such as who will own the results, who will deliver it, how will it be delivered? Herein lies the problem and the opportunity!

There have been several interventions from the BEE. They have been attacking this problem from policy perspective in a clinical precision manner. BEE has been doing a great job in coming out with policies that comprehensively covers such issues.

Rajaraman concluded that simple technological and policy interventions alone are not going to be enough. It needs a social and mindset change. He concluded: “Give a man one CFL/LED, you secure one CFL/LED worth of energy savings! Teach a man to love his CFL/LED, you inspire a life time of energy efficient behavior!”

I will later add a separate post on Dr. Ajay Mathur's thoughts.

Focus on gyroscopes for mobile phone apps: Yole

Laurent Robin, MEMS market analyst, Yole Développement, recently presented on gyroscopes for mobile phone applications during a MEMS market briefing in Tokyo, Japan, at MEMS/Micromachine 2010.

He presented an overview of the MEMS inertial sensor market, as well as a status of the gyroscope market in consumer applications. He also focused on gyroscope for mobile phone applications and a combination of motion sensors for mobile phones.

Overview of MEMS inertial sensor market
Robin presented an overview of the MEMS accelerometers and gyroscopes market.

MEMS accelerometers
CE: $596.84 million in 2010 going up to $799.80 million in 2013. The CAGR 2008-13 is 17 percent.
Automotive: $462.85 million in 2010 going up to $574.62 million in 2013. The CAGR 2008-13 is 4.7 percent.
Industrial & Medical: $96.28 million in 2010 going up to $126.04 million in 2013. The CAGR is 4.4 percent.
Aerospace & Defense: $92.61 million in 2010 going up to $128.12 million in 2013. The CAGR is 10 percent.

MEMS gyroscopes
CE: $296.09 million in 2010 going up to $701.60 million in 2013. The CAGR 2008-13 is 27.3 percent.
Automotive: $473.43 million in 2010 going up to $521.56 million in 2013. The CAGR 2008-13 is 2.5 percent.
Industrial & Medical: $12.43 million in 2010 going up to $16.90 million in 2013. The CAGR is 10.6 percent.
Aerospace & Defense: $128.69 million in 2010 going up to $177.03 million in 2013. The CAGR is 9.7 percent.

Status of gyroscope market in consumer applications
The 3-axis gyroscopes are now available. As expected, Invensense and ST Microelectronics released the first 3-axis gyroscopes in Q4 2009.

Those 3-axis gyroscopes are starting to be integrated in some handset platforms in the summer of 2010. The price is now low enough for high-end smartphones: around $2.50 probably. However, it will have to decrease quickly for further adoption.

The 2009 MEMS gyroscope market share for CE applications is estimated at $258 million. As for the market shares, five competitors — Invensense, Epson Toyocom, Panasonic, Murata and — ST are playing in the consumer electronics gyroscope market today. Invensense and ST are strongly competing to enter this promising mobile phone market. The Japanese players have not extended their camcorder and camera business to mobile phones yet.

Focus on gyroscope for mobile phone applications
According to Robin, the motion sensor market is likely to grow from $306 million in 2009 to $1,191 million in 2015. This is the most dynamic area in the MEMS and sensor market.

While accelerometers and compasses tend to become a commodity product, growth now comes from MEMS gyroscopes. The MEMS gyroscopes will start to be massively implemented in smartphones in 2010 with the iPhone4 announced in June.

Long term growth will come from low-drift gyroscopes and from modules of motion sensors. The competition will intensify as new companies are expected to challenge the current players with disruptive approaches. Yole has identified over 50 companies in this area!

The iPhone4 saw the first gyroscopes in mobile phones in June 2010! Apple’s Steve Jobs announced that the iPhone4 will integrate a 3-axis gyroscope. Many other smartphones are expected to feature gyroscopes by the end of 2010.

Apple is expected to set a new trend, as it did for accelerometers three years earlier. ST Microelectronics has emerged as the big winner of this first battle. It has won this new key contract with Apple. InvenSense is the only viable alternative to ST Microelectronics, they are also expected to make nice profits with this handset market.MEMS gyroscopes in mobile phones. Source: Yole Développement, France.

Price pressure is already strong, even with no or low quantities! If announced around $3 in large quantities, the actual pricing will be around $2.50 for 3-axis gyros. Also, gyro manufacturers want to be adopted by the big handset OEMs as soon as possible.

Pricing is a challenge. The $2.50 or $2 is still a lot in a mobile phone BOM. Massive integration of gyroscopes will need further price reduction.

Combo of motion sensors for mobile phones
According to Yole, three types of motion sensor clusters are expected. if you analyze the 3-axis accelerometer (3A), 3-axis gyroscope (3G) and 3-axis digital compass (3M) segments. These are:

In the 3A + 3M cluster, the market demand is validated. In 2009: 10 percent of compass are embedded in 3A+3G modules. The challenge — compass location is critical (interferences). If it works well, the market for 3A+3M combo will surge very fast.

In the IMU: 3A + 3G cluster, when gyros will become popular, there will be an interest to integrate them with accelerometers. Also, sensor fusion with accelerometer data will provide additional features (navigation).

In the 3A + 3G + 3M cluster, the long term view is that demand will start only when 3-axis gyroscopes become a commodity.

The question is: low cost MEMS IMUs (inertial measurement unit) are now possible, but are they really needed? Yole sees two approaches that are likely to appear in parallel. One, 3-axis gyroscopes on the board for gaming, dead reckoning, and later combined with 3-axis accelerometer: MEMS IMUs. Two, 2-axis gyroscopes (low dynamic range) on the camera module for stabilization. There will be minor cases when 3-axis gyro solution is not required.

Yole believes that MEMS IMUs (and other motion sensor combos) will be a very hot topic in just a few months.

Yole also presented an example the smart sensor — the ST-iNEMO. A smart sensor is a combination of sensors, data processing and information transmission.

Three kinds of players will be involved for motion sensor clusters: MCU providers and motion sensing component suppliers; data fusion and software, and system integrator. Signal processing and software is also becoming key, though, things won’t change a lot at the component level.

The accelerometer industry is also well established. Very few new players should appear in the multi-axis gyroscope market or 3-axis magnetometer market — and only three players are supplying 2 and 3 axis gyros today: Invensense, Panasonic and ST.

Large, integrated players such as ST, Freescale, Panasonic and Bosch are trying to increase their position in the supply chain. Players in signal processing are now trying to get a part of the majority of the IMU added value.

New business models are appearing, leading to possible changes in the supply chain. Companies like Movea are buying standards sensors and add a high value though integration, software and processing. They target system integrators buy selling a solution taking into account the end applications, so that the integrators don’t have to manage the complex motion sensor output data.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Norton cybercrime report: Time to take back your Internet from cybercriminals!

Do you possess sound Internet etiquette? Are you careful while using social networking sites? Do you trust others and share your online details? How many of you think cybercrimes are 'usual' going to 'critical'? Are you even aware of any cybercrime? Who would you turn to for help, if you were attacked online?

Norton from Symantec today released the Norton Cybercrime Report: The Human Impact in India. It covers 14 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, USA, covering 7,066 adults. This report tries to answer some (or most) of the questions above!

Norton collaborated with Anne Collier, independent expert advisor on Internet safety.

Effendy Ibrahim, Internet safety advocate and consumer business lead, Asia, highlighted the key points of yhe Norton Cybercrime Report. These include:

* A silent digital epidemic -- of victims who feel powerless.
* People feel ripped off and pissed off -- and lacking confidence that criminals will be brought to justice.
* Moral compasses not pointing true north -- a grey area when it comes to online morals and ethics.
* People trying to protect themselves, but coming up short -- Common sense is not the best defence.

The silent epidemic
Globally, 65 percent of the people have fallen victim to cybercrime! However, nobody seems to be talking about it! In India, 76 percent have fallen victim to cybercrimals. Only 3 percent of the global poplulation do not expect to fall victim. In India, this number is only 8 percent!

Also, 79 percent globally do not expect cybercriminals to be brought to justice. And, 57 percent Indians do not expect cybercriminals to be brought to justice either! Not very encouraging figures!

Falling victim to cybercrime can leave people feeling angry, annoyed, frustrated, violated, cheated, upset, helpless, and so on and so forth. I've experienced this feeling, and it was definitely similar!

Some other interesting findings from Norton's report. Indian adults feel highly responsible for phishing -- 85 percent, online scams -- 81 percent, and computer viruses/malware attacks -- 88 percent. It seems that Indians practice bad Internet etiquette!

And, when in trouble, who do the victims contact in India? The survey says, 46 percent call their bank, 40 percent contact the website, and 37 percent call the police!

Around a quarter of victims take a DIY approach to sorting cybercrime. Unfortunately for them, the Norton experts say that the actions they are taking won’t necessarily help them, and may not even be safe.

For instance in India, 53 percent restrict the websites they visit. This only limits people's enjoyment of the Internet. Security software, with a search advisor tool, will let you know if a site is safe.

Next, 38 percent get a family member or a friend to sort things out. Well, many threats go undetected by out-of-date or incomplete security solutions. So unless your friends are security experts, chances are that you will still be vulnerable. Finally, 32 percent try to identify the criminal and seek justice. This is not easy. Therefore, it is always advisable to work with law enforcement agencies, rather than go it alone.

Wasting time and money!
Remember, resolving a cybercrime involves using, and losing, time and money! Globally, resolving cybercrime takes 28 days on an average. The costs involved -- $334 on an average!

India fares worse! It takes 44 days on an average to resolve a cybercrime, and the costs involved -- $113.84. The corresponding figures for some other countries make interesting reading.

Canada -- 17 days, $561.45; USA -- 24 days, $127.87; Brazil -- 43 days, $1,408.09; Sweden -- 9 days, $177.66; France -- 17 days, $141.60; Spain -- 18 days, $527.78; UK -- 25 days, $153.13, Italy -- 36 days; $114.47; Germany -- 58 days, $137.68; China -- 23 days, $944.70; Australia -- 29 days, $529.87; Japan -- 32 days, $178.57!

That's a lot of time being taken across countries to resolve cybercrimes!

Are you behaving unethically?
Let's see the numbers for those tempted into unethical behavior! Norton's report finds that globally, nearly half the population think that it is OK to steal music and movies online!

Well, 11 percent think that is cool to impersonate someone online. And, 12 percent think that it is OK to use someone else’s research -- tell me about it!

Another, 12 percent feel that it is OK to browse someone else’s files and emails. Yikes! That's horrible! Also, 5 percent even think that it is OK to hack into someone’s computer and sell their personal information online. Now that's not nice!

Maybe, all of us need to be extremely careful about how we use the social networking sites, and be careful about all the information, photos, etc., that we are adding on to those sites, not to speak of with whom we share all of this information with, offline!

According to Norton, the right kind of security can keep cybercriminals away.

Norton from Symantec also released the Norton AntiVirus and Norton Internet Security 2011, said to be the only suite to achieve a 100 percent protection score in a new third-party test from Dennis Labs.

Well, take a stand, folks! Everyone can contribute!! You could start by choosing a powerful security suite; and the safer you are, the safer others can be. Start talking about online security, and definitely report incidents to authorities.

Take back your Internet from cybercriminals.

I'll add more, time permitting!

LSI announces major India plans

LSI has announced significant expansion in LSI India operations over next 36 months. It will also scale engineering capability across a wide range of functional areas, and there will be increased levels of engagement with regional customers and partners.

Making these announcements in Bangalore, Jeff Richardson, executive VP, LSI Corp., said that LSI will be expanding the R&D facility in Bangalore and also double the LSI India workforce. It has opened 300,000 sq feet of new office space with 30,000 sq feet of lab to accommodate approximately 1,400 employees.

LSI intends to scale its engineering capability in India. These include enterprise storage -- NAS, SAN, systems, software and semiconductors, as well as wireless and wireline infrastructure -- software and semiconductors. To improve engagement levels with regional partners and customers, LSI will be adding marketing and customer support capabilities.

The vision for LSI India is to become a global engineering center that fosters innovation and enriches careers. LSI India has experienced an average annual headcount growth rate of over 100 percent per year since 2004, starting from a headcount of 44 in 2004, this has risen to 1,074 in 2010. LSI's mission is to be the most trusted provider of technologies that connect people and information.

LSI India Capability GrowthSource: LSI.

“India is a key component of our long-term strategic vision, with both excellent technical education infrastructure and exceptional talent,” said Richardson. “The world-class R&D capabilities we are deploying in India will allow us to continuously innovate and deliver breakthrough storage and networking technologies that enable our customers to outpace the competition.”

“The Bangalore Development Center will play an important role in adding to our business as well as creating innovative products for the global market,” said Pravin Desale, managing director, LSI India Research & Development Pvt Ltd. and vice president of engineering, Storage Components Division, LSI.

A bit more, later!

Saturday, September 11, 2010

Cowan LRA model's 2010 semicon sales growth forecast estimate: How does it "stack up" against other prognosticators?

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Cowan routinely tracks how the Cowan LRA Model sales growth forecast (each month) compares to a wide range of other major semiconductor market watchers in order to monitor how the model's latest monthly result "stacks up" against the competition, that is, the 14 other prognosticators he routinely monitors.

The table below summarizes the latest sales growth forecast expectations of these 14 other semiconductor industry forecasters, thus comparing Cowan's forecast number to the rest of the crowd.Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Cowan also updates his forecast numbers each month immediately following the WSTS release of its monthly actual sales numbers in order to "dynamically" predict the industry's sales posture. Consequently, the sales and sales growth output of the monthly model run does NOT "sit still" as highlighted below:

THE Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales -- 'divining (mathematically) the future from the past:

* It should be emphasized that each month’s actual global sales number published by the WSTS is a "lagging indicator" since it is released a full month after the fact.

* The Cowan LRA Model, however, "turns" this lagging actual monthly sales into a "leading indicator" by virtue of its near-term forecasting capability looking out over the next five quarters.

* This is the "beauty" of the model and, therefore, makes it dynamic in the sense that it can be run each month utilizing the most recent actual global semiconductor sales number published by the WSTS. Thus, it allows “rigorous tracking” of the near-term sales forecast outlook for the global semiconductor industry on an “almost” real-time basis.

* Consequently, the model’s monthly sales forecast does not “sit still” but “evolves” with each succeeding month’s latest published sales number. Since conditions change rapidly and unexpectedly in the semiconductor industry, industry market forecasters are hard pressed to keep up with these changes. How can industry management be sure that a sales forecast issued two, three, or more months ago is still valid and relevant to what's happening in today’s global semiconductor market?

In order to illustrate the "does not sit still" principal embedded in the monthly update to my forecasting methodology, please see the graphic showing the month-to-month evolution of year 2010 sales and sales growth forecast estimates as determined by the model.Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Where are the MEMS markets going?

Yole Développement and its partner System Plus Consulting recently took part in MEMS/Micromachine 2010. Jean-Christophe Eloy, president and CEO, Yole, presented a MEMS Markets forecast 2009-2015: overview of the Industry and technologies trends. May I also take this opportunity to thank Sandrine Leroy, media and PR manager, Yole.

MEMS remains a fragmented market: A limited number of applications have a market size above $200 million.

Simplification of manufacturing is still an objective. The MEMS law – “one product, one process, one package” is still there. MEMS packaging is more and more an “added value step” with 3D MEMS being more widely adopted. Also, software development is now an important competence in MEMS companies in order to sell functions and not devices.

The development of new MEMS applications is taking years to be commercialized. On an average, four years from first developments to first commercial product and $45 million of investment, and three to four different CEOs.

Several major system companies with MEMS fabs are now looking to use external foundries. At least five major companies are involved in such changes, with a total cumulative business of $350 million. Delphi and Conti have already taken this decision.

The 8" manufacturing infrastructure is required for companies targeting consumer electronics. It should be noted that MEMS manufacturers not involved in consumer electronics are facing a very strong risk to lose competitiveness.

Competition is increasing on consumer electronics applications. STMicroelectronics is now proposing accelerometers, gyroscopes, microphones and digital compass. Also, Invensense is searching in its IPO large extra funding to compete on motion sensing applications.

The MEMS foundry production services market traditionally develops at 20 percent AAGR. The back to normal growth will happen in 2011.

MEMS foundry market – Ranking of MEMS FoundriesSource: Yole Développement, France.

A note on the MEMS market. Areas such as MEMS ID, ustructures, energy harvesting, uFuel cells, electronic compass, microtips, microdisplay, autofocus/uZoom, MEMS oscillators, and MEMS speakers are emerging.

Emerging MEMS market share
The emerging MEMS market share was $559 million in 2009, including auto focus -- 57.7 percent, digital compass -- 22.4 percent, micro tips for ATE - 10.4 percent, and microbolometers cores -- 7.5 percent.

The emerging MEMS market share is likely to reach $2.2 billion in 2015, including auto focus -- 36.1 percent, digital compass – 17.1 percent, and micro displays - 15.9 percent.

MEMS growth will be very strong for these new devices. Most of the new MEMS developments are under the roof of startups. The situation is quite similar to what has happened in the 1998-1999 years, when many new MEMS developments were on the edge of crossing the chasm and are today mature MEMS products with large volume market: gyroscopes, microfluidics. Yole has identified more than 30 startups involved in these developments.

MEMS market growth is coming from existing devices, and brand new applications! There will be special focus on gyroscopes for mobile phone applications.

Time permitting, I shall report on what Laurent Robin, MEMS Market Analyst, Yole, has to say on his report: A special focus on gyroscopes for mobile phone applications.

Friday, September 10, 2010

ON Semiconductor aims to lead in energy efficiency solutions

ON Semiconductor is a premier supplier of high performance, energy efficient silicon solutions. It is enabling energy efficient electronics for a greener world and providing a broad array of products and solutions. The company registered revenue worth $583 milllion in 2Q10.

Providing a company overview earlier this week, M. K. Mak, regional vice president of Sales for Korea and South Asia, highlighted ON Semi's leadership in energy efficiency solutions.

Especially, it has no. 1 market share in AC-DC controllers for adapters used in printers, notebooks, game consoles. The company has expanded its SAM (served available market) as a result of acquisitions. It also offers 19 GreenPoint reference designs, for LED backlight LCD TVs, all-in-one desktop systems and LED Lighting. ON Semi also increased the fuel efficiency in automotive with infotainment, lighting, powertrain (engine control), and in-vehicle networking products.

This is not all. The company has expanded into emerging applications as well. It has been witnessing growth in lighting and smart grid, reinforced by synergies with efficient power supplies.

In LED lighting, there is likely to be $2.6 billion LED lighting driver market in 2012, growing at 17 percent CAGR. The growth drivers include LED backlighting in large LCD panels; LCD-TV and notebooks, general lighting and illumination, and automotive lighting.

Smart grid is the other key growth area. As of now, there are 1.3 billion electric meters worldwide with only ~10 percent automated -- automatic meter reading AMR and advanced metering infrastructure (AMI).

Within this segment, the SAM is likely to expand, with ~$1.5 average content now projected to grow to $6 in 2012. Some other areas include ASSP (PLC networking modems), power discretes in distributed power generation (wind, solar), EEPROM, SRAM and power line drivers.

ON Semiconductor acquires Sanyo Semiconductor
In the middle of July 2010, ON Semiconductor announced the signing of a definitive purchase agreement providing for the acquisition of SANYO Semiconductor Co. Ltd, a subsidiary of SANYO Electric, and other assets related to SANYO Electric’s semiconductor business. The acquisition is expected to be completed before the end of 2010. The reasons cited for this acquisition include:

Complementary products, customers and end-markets: SANYO Semiconductor adds microcontrollers, motor controllers, inverters and other products. ON Semiconductor is strong in North America and Europe; SANYO is strong in Japan and Asia. Also, it significantly enhances ON Semiconductor’s position in the automotive and consumer markets.

Strengthens market position in Japan and Asia: The acquisition provides ON Semiconductor with significant market presence in Japan, the world’s second largest semiconductor market. ON Semiconductor will become the third largest US semiconductor company operating in Japan. It also strengthens ON Semiconductor’s position in Korea and other key Asian markets.

Leverages operational excellence to drive cost savings: The acquisition leverages ON Semiconductor’s successful track record of executing operational restructurings; seven acquisitions, eight fab and two back-end facilities consolidations. ON Semiconductor will drive the manufacturing integration. Also, it has owned and operated a factory in Japan since1982.

Increased scale and cash flow generation potential: Pro forma annualized MRQ revenues of $3.5 billion. There is a near term goal to deliver in excess of $30 million in pre-tax income on a quarterly basis from SANYO Semiconductor in approximately six quarters after closing the transaction.

Significant shareholder value creation opportunity: Acquiring approximately $1.2 billion revenue (based on 2Q’10 annualized) at ~0.5x multiple. This is significantly below recent similar transactions.

The aim is to build a $3 billion+ global market leader, with an
* Extensive portfolio of high performance, energy efficient silicon solutions.
* Enhanced manufacturing scale, operational and capital efficiencies.
* Expanded addressable markets and world-class customers.

Time permitting, I will add a separate post on ON Semiconductor's recent extension of its PureEdge clock and timing portfolio.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Roundup of day 2 @ Electronica India 2010

Day 2 at Electronica India 2010 was quite interesting. I first bumped into Ranga Prasad, business development manager of Aqtronics, a demand creation semiconductor distributor.

Aqtronics is targeting nine segments -- wireless, automotive, embedded, LED lighting, telecom, industrial, power, identification and IT enterprise. It has signed up Atheros, which has five SBO segments -- Wi-Fi, Ethernet, powerline communications, GPS and PON. Aqtronics has used LEDs to light up its entire booth at the show.

Commenting on the industry trend, Ranga Prasad said there were visible signs of good pick up and growth for the last two quarters in India. Concerns remain on the lead times of inventory. Hopefully, this problem should get over by Q4 in India and Q1 2011 in the US.

My next stop was at Khanna Traders & Engineers, which has entered into a tie up with Japan's Nihon for lead free solder. S.K. Khanna, managing director, said it is a patented product in 23 countries. It has already captured 60 percent market share in Europe and the United States, and has been previously running in over 40 countries across over 4,000 machines. This is said to be the only lead free solder with no silver coating.

It was a pleasure meeting Ms Kumud Tyagi, vice president, Bergen Associates. Quite rare to see a lady in a leadership position in an electronics outfit in India!

Bergen Associates has entered into a new partnership with Assemblon for pick and place machines. The company has the complete SMT line of solutions.

Bergen Associates is offering adhesives from Panacol -- meant for most industries, such as semiconductors, electronics and automotive. It is also showcasing the laser direct structuring (LDI) technology on special 3D parts from LPKF Laser & Electronics AG, Germany, as well.

TransTechnology Pte Ltd is pretty buoyant on India -- quite evident from the line-up of products on display. Christopher J. Fussner, president, said the company is offering the YS-24 from Yamaha. TransTechnology is also displaying the X3 Ekra screen printer -- an entry level inline model. Another one is the Asymtek SL-940/941 conformal coating machines. The 940 is an inline machine while the 941 is a batch type machine.

Maxim SMT is showcasing the SPI-350 solder paste inspection system from CyberOptics, USA. This is said to be one of the fastest and most accurate machines around. It is also displaying the QX500 AOI machine, also from CyberOptics.

Presenting a encouraging industry overview, S.S. Bist, general manager, Maxim SMT, said Indian customers are likely to buy new machines this year, rather than use refurbished or old ones.

Some other highlights from day 2 at Electronica India 2010 include:

* EMST Marketing Pvt Ltd is offering five-zone reflow machine. It is also showcasing the Autotronik pick and place machine.

* Leaptech is displaying the Omron AOI machine with color highlighting technology as well as an axial component insertion machine from Sciencgo, China. It is also showcasing the M6ex mounting center from i-Pulse of Japan, a Yamaha group company.

* Schott Glass India Pvt Ltd is displaying electronic housings or packages for electronic components. Schott specializes in glass-to-metal seals, and also develops ceramic-to-metal seals. It is offering housings for quartz as well. Schott's hybrid/microelectronic packages can be used for space, defence and telecom applications.

You can read all of these and more at tomorrow's Electronica India 2010 and Productronica India 2010 Show Floor Daily, published by Debasish Choudhury for Global SMT & Packaging magazine, and compiled by yours truly.

A nice chat with Ashok Chandak of NXP Semiconductors on the status of electronics manufacturing in India was a great way to round off my day! I shall be writing about this interaction later.

That's it from me from this year's show floor. Hope to be back next year, God willing! Cheers!!

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

India needs to become major hardware player!

This headline is sweet music to my ears! I have been waiting patiently to see that happens. Of course, this line was repeated today at the opening day of the Electronica 2010 and Productronica 2010 at the sprawling Bangalore International Exhibition Center.

"Bangalore should become the hardware capital of India," according to Ananth Kumar, MP and former Union minister of Urban Development. Bangalore should not only be known as the software capital and silicon valley of India. "That should be the main aim of the Electronica India 2010 expo.""India also needs hardware parks, besides software parks," he added. India needs hardware parks that should be more like multiplexes. He mentioned that taxation regime in Karnataka was also blocking development of electronics hardware. Hardware should also enjoy the taxation benefits that hardware enjoys, he stressed. "We should be the major exporters of hardware."

There are several highlights from day one of Electronica India 2010. I hope you get a chance to pick up the show daily being produced by yours truly on behalf of the Global SMT & Packaging magazine, thanks to my good friend and ex-colleague Debashish Chowdhury.

Some of the highlights are:
* David W. Bergman, vice president, International Relations, IPC, USA, pointed out that the broker business seems to be the next industry segment that seems to be growing.
* Infineon, NavSemi have introduced an innovative next-generation solar charge controllers for Indian market.
* Juki India Pvt Ltd is showcasing a variety of high- to low-end products such as
high speed chip shooter, fine pitch laser, and machine for LED market and entry level EMS companies.
* Bergen Systems is offering total solution for electronic board assembly.
* The ASYS Group has plans to open an India office in January 2011.
* EPS Worldwide is focusing on conformal coating solutions.
* RS Components is quite bullish on India.

It was also great to catch up with Bhupinder Singh and Sunali Agarwaal of MMI India, M. Anil Kumar of IPCA, as well as Ranga Prasad of Aqtronics, and several other folks, who, up until now, were merely friends over email or telephone.

More later, time permitting!

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Is this a war of tablets, or Apple OS vs. Google Android?

So, the Apple iPad has some serious competitors, or so, it seems! From Korea and Japan, especially, in form of first, Samsung and now, Toshiba. Well, it has a competitor from India too!

First, Samsung announced its Samsung Galaxy Tab Android tablet at the ongoing IFA 2010 in Berlin. Very soon, Toshiba followed with its Folio 100 Android tablet, also at the IFA.

There's a news on the Web about yet another Samsung tabllet, titled Honeycomb, which should be coming soon. Viewsonic, reports Gizmodo, is showing two tablets at the IFA -- the ViewPad 100, a 10-inch model that dual boots Windows Home Premium 7 and Android 1.6, and the ViewPad 7 running on Android 2.2.

Now, those in India would be quite familiar with Olive Telecom's OlivePad - VT100, India’s first 3.5G Pad. It supports 3.5G, Wi-Fi, HSUPA and Bluetooth, and features an inbuilt 3-megapixel camera and a front camera. The Olive Pad can be used as a touch notebook.

Hey, what's happening? We literally have an ongoing war of the tablets (tablet PCs) on our hands. Not that anyone's complaining. The other interesting point is the emergence of Google Android as a leading operating system (OS) in this domain, trying to take on the Apple iOS 3.2!

Maybe, more tablets are on their way. I'll compare some specs of the few tablets mentioned here, along with the iPad. As of now, it seems the game's on between the Apple iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab! There, I've joined this debate!!

Friday, September 3, 2010

Apple never ceases to amaze!

Am certain that most of you out there are either followers or lovers of Apple! And why not! Apple, and Steve Jobs, never cease to amaze us. The company, which literally became the game changer in the global mobile handset industry with the iPhone, came out with a flurry of announcements a day ago — these were more to do with music and entertainment.

First, Apple announced its new Apple TV, which claims to offer the simplest way to watch your favorite HD movies and TV shows on your HD TV for the breakthrough price of just $99. Next, it re-invented the iPod nano with multi-touch interface.

Then, it introduced the new iPod touch. Next came the new Apple iPod shuffle, which features clickable “ring” buttons and Apple’s innovative VoiceOver technology, enabling users to easily navigate their music and playlists without ever looking at their iPod shuffle.

These were followed by the iTunes 10 with Ping, a new music-oriented social network for following your favorite artists and friends to discover what music they’re talking about, listening to and downloading. I’ve seen a post somewhere, which says “Ping — promising or problematic!” Look that up as well.

What does the industry say?
Now, there have been a few interesting observations across the industry.

Suppli feels that Apple TV 2.0 would provide Apple the entry in the market for Internet-enabled living room devices, the fastest-growing major segment of Internet-connected products. According to iSuppli, Apple TV appears to fit right into the new wave of Internet-enabled living room devices entering the market.

However, the device would have to compete against a host of players. As per iSuppli, the field is currently populated by Internet media players with optical drives like Blu-ray players, video game consoles such as Microsoft’s Xbox and Sony’s PlayStation, as well as standalone media players like those from Roku, Vudu, and the forthcoming Boxee Box from D-Link. Then, there are Internet-enabled TVs being provided by a number of leading brands.

Elsewhere, Ovum’s analyst points out that Apple TV 2.0 shows a strong focus on the video on demand (VOD) market, which is a different strategy to that being pursued by Google TV.

Okay, here may be a very good case for a television set for every individual in the house! Wonder if this isn’t happening already! Or, even, a small output device beaming multiple screens across the house. I would surely fancy a device that allows me to transmit multiple screens in each room, and then I or whoever’s watching, can flip through channels of his or her choice. Futuristic? You know what, the technology industry’s very capable!

War of the tablets
While on Google, there's this very interesting Samsung GALAXY Tab (model: GT-P1000), launched at the IFA 2010 by Samsung Electronics. Powered by Android Operating System 2.2, the Samsung GALAXY Tab is the first of the company’s tablet devices, representing a new category of mobile products for Samsung.

Comparisons are already being made between the Samsung GALAXY Tab and the Apple iPad. It is likely to carry on till some other device comes along!

Right! There's news coming out of IFA 2010 that Toshiba has debuted its Folio 100, a 10.1-inch, Android 2.2-based tablet computer, which will be on sale in Europe by the end of October! Now, that's called heating up the segment!

For now, let's just enjoy Apple's products!

3G spectrum allotted in India!
Oh, before I conclude, the Department of Telecom (DoT), government of India, has allotted 3G spectrum to AirTel, Aircel, Vodafone, S Tel, Reliance, Idea Cellular and Tata Cellular Services who won the bids through the electronic auction conducted by the DoT spread over a period of 34 days in respect of 3G and 16 days in respect of BWA.

The BWA spectrum has already been assigned to the successful bidders’, which are Aircel, Augere, Tikona, Qualcomm, Infotel and Bharti.

So, that's great news! Finally, we should get to see real 3G in India.

Pics: Courtesy of Apple, USA.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Cowan's LRA model update: Actual July 2010 global semicon sales $24.57bn; down 9.5 percent from last month (June)

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

The WSTS posted the July 2010 global semiconductor sales report (Historical Billings Report, HBR) on their website this Wednesday.

Therefore, with the WSTS having released its actual July 2010 global semiconductor sales number Cowan has provided the latest monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model's derived forecast results. The updated forecast numbers for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 "kicked up" slightly from the previous month's forecast estimates.

The actual July 2010 global semiconductor sales announced by the WSTS came in at $24.568 billion which is:

* 28.1 percent higher than 2009's July sales of $19.175 billion;
* Down 9.5 percent from last month's (June) sales of $27.153 billion;
* And higher (by $1.180 billion, or up 5.0 percent) compared to last month's (June's projection) sales forecast estimate for July, that is, $23.388 billion;
* The Cowan LRA Model's Momentum Indicator, MI, went positive (+5.0 percent) compared to last month's minus posture (-4.0 percent), summarized below.

July 2010’s actual semiconductor sales (of $24.568 billion) came in higher (by $1.180 billion) than the model’s last month's July 2010 sales forecast estimate (of $23.388 billion) representing a plus 5.0 percent delta comparing July 2010's actual sales number (published by the WSTS) to the projected forecast estimate “put forth” by the Cowan LRA forecasting model and reported last month. This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA Model's MI.

The MI is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for a given month -- in this case July 2010’s just published actual global sales of $24.568 billion and the forecasted sales estimate for July 2010, that is, $23.388 billion, which was calculated and published last month.

The MI can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from the previous month’s prediction derived by the model’s linear regression analysis of the past 26 years of historical, monthly global “sales experience.”

Note => August 2010’s Sales Forecast Estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion.

Latest monthly update
The latest monthly update to 2010's global semiconductor sales forecast estimate as determined by the Cowan LRA forecasting model notched up to $305.729 billion corresponding to a projected 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of 35.1 percent.

These latest forecasted 2010 sales and sales growth estimates increased slightly from last month's reported sales and sales growth forecast estimates of $303.914 and 34.3 percent, respectively.

Thus. the full complement of the latest, updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are detailed in the table below along with the 1Q's and 2Q's actual reported sales numbers.

Table 1: Latest Cowan LRA model's global semiconductor sales and growth forecast estimates (Based on WSTS's July 2010 global semiconductor sales, as reported on 9-01-10).Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Sept 2010).

The second table shows the corresponding results from last month's model run in order to compare the sequential forecast estimate numbers, namely July versus June.

Table 2: Previous month's Cowan LRA model's global semiconductor sales and growth forecast estimates (Based on WSTS's June 2010 global semiconductor sales, reported on 8-03-10).Sources: WSTS and Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (August 2010).

Additionally, next month's (August 2010) global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.448 billion which would "translate" to an August 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.723 billion assuming NO (or very minor) revisions in either June or July's sales numbers as part of the WSTS's August sales report.

The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA (using WSTS sales numbers) as part of its monthly press release that characterizes the semiconductor industry's monthly sales and sales growth posture. The SIA's August 3MMA press release is scheduled to be announced on Monday, October 4th, 2010.

Analysts' watch
Cowan has also provided additional forecast-related results, including the latest update to my tracking of various market watchers 2010 sales growth expectations.

Various semicon market watchers sales growth forecasts for 2010 (as of 9-01-10). -- ranked low to high.Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Also, here's a table on the evolution of various semicon market analysts' sales growth forecasts for 2010.

Evolution of various semicon market analysts' sales growth forecasts for 2010 (as of 9-01-10)Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.