Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Cadence Allegro 16.6 Accelerates Timing Closure

Cadence Design Systems Inc. has released the Allegro/OrCAD 16.6 that provides unmatched, scalable design solutions addressing technology challenges.

Allegro is meant for simple to more complex boards, for the geographically dispersed design teams. They also cater to the personal productivity needs for start-ups and small to medium companies. It provides high-speed, power aware SI, HDI managed design environments, that is meant for medium to large enterprises.

Allegro, Sigrity and OrCAD – major themes of Allegro PCB 16.6
The major themes of Allegro PCB 16.6 include the first ECAD collaborative environment for work-in-progress (WiP) PCB design using Microsoft SharePoint. It accelerates the timing closure for high-speed interfaces such as DDRx. There is support for advanced miniaturization techniques that embed passive and active components on inner layers of a PCB.

Regarding the percentage of enhanced miniaturization capabilities for embedding dual-sided and vertical components, Hemant Shah, product marketing director, Allegro PCB and FPGA Products, Cadence, said: “Components with dual-sided contacts offer customers the ability to connect to the components pins through the layer above or through the layer below. This provides routing flexibility. It also allows customers who want redundant connections on inner layers.”

There can be accelerated design implementation through flexible PCB team design capability. Leveraging GPUs for faster display, you can pan and zoom on dense PCBs, enabling greater design productivity.

Typical product creation environment includes the best-in-class hardware design environment for implementation, analysis and compliance sign-off. The design team collaboration capability encompasses design-chain partners. The design data can be integrated into corporate systems to manage cost and quality, and provide visibility. This facilitates on-time release into manufacturing to build products.

Allegro, OrCAD and Sigrity ensure product creation with the best-in-class PCB design environment. Design team collaboration and productivity is integrated at the PCB. Design data integration is also done into corporate systems to manage cost and quality. There is on-time release into manufacturing to build products. Allegro, OrCAD and Sigrity are helping create market leading products.

Users can create the first ECAD collaborative environment using Microsoft SharePoint. Design creation and collaboration trends include geographically distributed teams, increase in outsourcing (OEMs-ODMs), product life cycle management tools are not designed/targeted for managing work-in-progress data. For every design engineer, there are 3X-5X collaborators, reviewers, etc.

The Allegro Design workbench integrates seamlessly to SharePoint 2010. The Team Design Authoring cockpit facilitates design data in and out of SharePoint providing WiP design data management. There is block level check-in, check-out, etc. SharePoint is already deployed in many companies. It is scalable from single server to cloud environment. It has rich platform for power users to configure and developers to customize.

By creating the first ECAD collaborative environment, users can reduce the product creation time by up to 40 per cent. Chances of first pass failure are also reduced from 25 per cent to 1 per cent. Users can accelerate the timing closure on high-speed, multi-Gigabit signals.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Integrating next-gen technology into nano/MEMS facilities

CH2M HLL is a global leader in consulting, design, design-build, operations, and program management. Its ultimate goal is to link nanotechnologies to high-tech manufacturing.

Nanomanufacturing techniques for scale include photo-lithography techniques, e-beam lithography techniques, ion-beam lithography techniques, nano-imprint lithography, nanofabrication by self-assembly and laser technology processes.

There are three major challenges for cost-effective nanomanufacturing -- flexibility, critical environment scale-up and safety, sustainability and health (SSH). Also, nanomanufacturing requires high flexibility. Nanofacility critical environments include electromagnetic interference, cleanliness, vibration, temperature and humidity control, adaptive HVAC zones, airborne molecular contamination (AMC) and acoustics.

There are nano facility site planning challenges such as surface transit, direct current light rail, high voltage lines and truck and bus traffic.

There is a need to analyse the detailed ambient conditions study and subsurface vibration testing, which is 3-4 meters below grade. Solutions include 'no-build zones for vibration, EMI and RFI, building outside zones, identify 'sweet spot', VC-E lower/first level, and remediation by mass such as slab size lower level and slab size first level.

The proposed model for China nanomanufacturing includes top level R&D labs, stacked cleanrooms for pilot and manufacturing, nano/MEMS/NEMS, ISO 5 and 7 cleanrooms, VC-D and VC-C vibration criteria, E-beam metrology, TEM suite capability and remote bulk gas pad. The proposed China baseline is in Suzhou, China.

Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, CH2M HLL has nearly 30,000 employees. Broadly diversified across multiple business sectors, it had $6.4 billion in revenue (2011).

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Update on global semicon trends 2012-13

For the sake of completeness, that is, for a view of the complete 2013 semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast outlook, Mike Cowan, independent semicon consultant, has extended his model to 'capture' the forecast sales numbers for the final two quarters of 2013.

Thus, the second half of 2013 sales forecast estimate came in at $170.6 billion, which represents a 10 percent increase over the (forecasted) 2H-2012 sales of $155.2 billion.

Therefore, the full year 2013 sales forecast outlook becomes $321.1 billion, which yields an expected year-on-year sales growth forecast estimate of 7.7 percent for 2013.

Quarterly, half year and full year forecast results for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are provided in the following table.Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

As noted all forecast numbers are italicized. Also note that a line has been included that provides the most recent (June 2012's Spring 2012 Forecast Update) WSTS/SIA forecast results for comparative purposes.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Dr. Wally Rhines on global EDA industry

It is always a pleasure interacting with Dr. Walden (Wally) C. Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics, and vice chairman of the EDA Consortium, USA. I started by enquiring about the global semiconductor industry.

Dr. Wally Rhines said: "The absolute size of the semiconductor industry (in terms or total revenue) differs depending on which analyst you ask, because of differences in methodology and the breadth of analysts' surveys. Current 2012 forecasts include $316 billion from Gartner, $320 billion from IDC, $324.5 billion from IHS iSuppli, $327.2 billion from Semico Research and $339 billion from IC Insights.

"These numbers reflect growth rates from 4 per cent to 9.2 per cent, based on the different analyst-specific 2011 totals. Capital spending forecasts for the three largest semiconductor companies have increased by almost 50 per cent just since the beginning of this year. However, the initial spurt of demand was influenced by the replenishment of computer and disc drive inventories caused by the Thailand flooding. Now that this is largely complete, there is some uncertainty about the second half.

"So, overall it looks like the industry will pass $310 billion this year, but it may not be by very much. The strong capital spending and demand for leading edge capacity should impact the second half but the bigger impact will probably be in 2013.

What's with 28/20nm?
Has 28/20nm semiconductor technology become a major 'work horse'? What's going on in that area? At least, this area is now of considerable interest.

Dr. Rhines said that the semiconductor industry's transition to the 28nm family of technologies, which broadly includes 32nm and 20nm, is a much larger transition than we have experienced for many technology generations.

The world's 28nm-capable capacity now comprises almost 20 per cent of the total silicon area in production and yet, the silicon foundries are fully loaded with more 28nm demand than they can handle. In fact, high demand for 28/20nm has created a capacity pinch that is currently spurring additional capital expenditure by foundries.

He added: "As yields and throughput mature at 28nm, the major wave of capital investment will provide plentiful foundry capacity at lower cost, stimulating a major wave of design activity. Cost-effective, high yield 28nm foundry capacity will not only drive increasing numbers of new designs but it will also force re-designs of mature products to take advantage of the cost reduction opportunity."

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Global semiconductor sales worth $298 billion in 2012?

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

According to the WSTS’s July (posted Sept. 8th, 2012) actual global semiconductor sales of $23.977 billion, the latest monthly forecast expectation for 2012’s total global semiconductor sales came in at $298 billion as calculated by the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

This latest update to the 2012 sales forecast corresponds to a year-over-year sales growth expectation of minus 0.5 percent, which improved slightly from the previous month’s year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent. It is also lower than the joint WSTS/SIA Spring 2012 sales growth forecast of 0.45 percent, which corresponds to a global sales forecast estimate of $300.9 billion. Therefore, the model’s latest monthly forecast output (based on the just announced July 2012’s actual sales) continues to indicate negative sales growth for 2012 compared to 2011 for the second month in a row.

The model’s previous month’s forecast expectation for July’s actual sales was $23.16 billion as shown in the first table. This forecasted sales number (generated last month) was lower than the actual July published sales of $23.98 billion (larger by $0.82 billion or up 3.5 percent).

This results in an M.I. (Momentum Indicator) of plus 3.5 implying that the sales growth trend will be “marginally” up (that is, slightly less negative) over the near term forecast horizon.

Inserting July’s just published actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model also produces the latest updated sales and sales growth forecast expectations for the remaining two quarters of 2012 as well as the first two quarters of 2013.

These results are summarized in the first table. Also provided in the table are the previous month’s sales and sales growth forecast numbers, which were derived last month, thereby providing sequential monthly forecast estimate comparisons.As displayed in the first table, the latest projected full year 2012 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate increased to $298 billion from last month’s sales forecast expectation of $297 billion – an increase of $1 billion. Correspondingly, the updated 2012 sales growth forecast estimate improved to minus 0.5 percent from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of minus 0.85 percent – a decrease of 0.35 percentage points, but still residing in negative territory.

Monday, September 3, 2012

Solarcon India 2012: Solar Industry In Third Wave!

There are three phases of PV industry development, including formation, regional development and globalization, according to Bettina Weiss, VP, Global PV Business Unit, SEMI, USA. She was delivering the opening keynote at the ongoing Solarcon India 2012 event in Bangalore, India. The event runs till September 5.

According to her, in the first stage, discoveries lead to inventions. Inventions find niche and high-value applications. Technology, and not manufacturing is the key driver here. For regional development, new industries seen as source for economic development. Markets develop through government subsidies. Global supply chains and regional clusters of excellence develop as well.

State of global PV industry
The government policy support for PV has been strong till 2011. However, it may fall of during 2012-16. The supply-demand balance was generally stable till 2011, which could likely see structural overcapacity in 2012-16. The demand, which has been over 70 per cent till 2011, will likely see -20 per cent growth from 2012-16.

While there were many ‘saviour’ markets, such as Spain (2008), Italy (2010) and Germany (2009-11), Europe may prove to be not enough to absorb excess capacity in 2012-16. Poly, scale and the learning curve had been competitive till 2011, and are likely to give way to non-poly costs, technology and efficiency during 2015-16. While the gross margin was consistently above 20 per cent till now, the path to profitability remains unclear for the period 2012-16.

As for the cell and module makers performance, sharp price declines since 2011 have stimulated record installations globally. The effect on PV manufacturers have been severe. The entire supply chain has been plagued with collapsing margins.

Revenue to shipment ratio declined for five consecutive quarter since Q1 ’11. The list of insolvencies keeps growing. The outlook for 2012 is that volume/shipment upside is likely, but the path to profitability is still unclear.

Then, there is the ongoing solar trade war!

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) levied anti-dumping tariffs against Chinese solar module imports, with tariffs ranging from 31 per cent to 250 per cent. In response to the US tariffs, China’s Ministry of Commerce, on July 21, 2012, announced that it will start its own AD and CVD investigation on imported solar-grade polysilicon from US, and is initiating an AD investigation on these imports from South Korea. The EU Commission will decide by mid-September whether to accept a similar complaint and launch an investigation.