Friday, August 19, 2011

July's global semicon sales expectation for 2011

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

It's that time of the month again; namely, time to preview next month's global semiconductor sales forecast update for 2011 (and also for 2012) based upon July's "actual" sales expectation by exercising the “look ahead” forecasting feature of the Cowan LRA Model.

Therefore, presented below is a "snap shot" of 2011's global semiconductor sales and sales growth forecast prospects as a function of July's "actual" sales forecast estimate range as derived via the Cowan LRA forecast model that he has developed and previously shared with you. Moreover, as part of this month's update, Cowan has extended the model in order to include a first view of what 2012’s sale growth prospects might look like thereby providing a six quarter look ahead that allows the model to capture the cumulative four quarters of 2012.

It should be mentioned that July 2011's "actual" global semiconductor sales number is scheduled to be released by the WSTS via its monthly HBR (Historical Billings Report) on or about Tuesday, September 6th. The monthly HBR is normally posted by the WSTS.

In advance of the upcoming WSTS’s July global semi sales formal release, Cowan has furnished an analysis using the Cowan LRA forecasting model that projects worldwide semiconductor sales for 2011 (as well as 2012 -- new); namely, by providing a "look ahead" scenario for year 2011's sales forecast range as a function of next month's (in this case July's) "actual" global semi sales estimates.

The output of this "look ahead" modeling analysis is captured in the scenario analysis matrix displayed in the table below. A discussion of these results is included in the paragraphs immediately following the table:Source: COWAN LRA Forecast Model, USA.

In order to facilitate the determination of this "look ahead" forecast, an extended range in possible July 2011's "actual" sales is selected a-priori; in this particular scenario analysis, a July 2011 sales range from a low of $22.910 billion to a high of $25.910 billion, in increments of $0.250 billion, is selected as shown in the first column of the table.

This estimated range in assumed "actual" sales numbers is "centered around" a July sales forecast expectation of $24.410 billion as gleamed from last month's Cowan LRA Model run (based upon June's WSTS published "actual" sales number). The corresponding July 3MMA sales forecast estimate expectation is projected to be $25.007 billion. (NOTE - this assumes no, or very minor revisions in either May or June's previously published "actual" sales numbers released last month by the WSTS).

The overall year 2011 sales forecast estimate for each of the selected July sales over the selected range of "actual" sales estimates is calculated by the model, and is exhibited in the second column of the table.

The third column lists the associated year-on-year sales growth estimates compared to year 2010's global semi sales of $298.315 billion as reported by WSTS.

The fourth and fifth columns show the corresponding July 3MMA, three Month Moving Average, sales forecast estimates and the associated year-on-year 3MMA sales growths relative to July 2010's 3MMA sales of $25.125 billion, respectively.

Finally, the sixth column lists the model's Momentum Indicator, MI, which is defined as the percentage delta between the actual June sales result and the previous month's (May's) sales forecast estimate for June.

Therefore, as the above scenario analysis table lays out, depending on the actual WSTS (to-be-released) July 2011 global semi sales number, the forecasted year 2011 sales estimate as calculated by the model could vary between a low of $310.394 billion and a high of $315.796 billion.Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Therefore, the corresponding 2010 to 2011 sales growth forecast estimate would then vary between a low of 4 percent and a high of 5.9 percent, respectively. Moreover, the table also reveals the model's expectations for 2012's sales and sales growth forecast estimate, namely $339.312 billion and 8.3 percent, respectively.

Note: Last month's previously published Cowan LRA Model's sales growth forecast estimate for 2011 based on June 2011's "actual" sales (of $27.110 billion), came in at (plus) 5.0 percent based upon the model's 2011 sales forecast estimate of $313.363 billion as shown in the table immediately below. Additionally 3Q11's sales forecast estimate is expected to be $82.539 billion which would result in an improved quarterly sequential sales growth of 11.5 percent over 2Q11's final sales of $74.031 reported by the WSTS.Sources: WSTS & Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (August 2011).

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