Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Cowan LRA model: Global semicon sales forecast based On Oct. 2010 actual sales

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Cowan has provided the latest monthly sales forecast update. Note that the latest sales forecast results capture not only the last quarter of 2010, but also provide the model's "take" on 2011. On Sunday, 12-05-10, the WSTS posted the October 2010's global semiconductor sales report (Historical Billings Report, HBR) on its website.

Therefore, with the WSTS having released its actual Oct. 2010 global semiconductor sales number, Cowan is sharing the latest monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model's derived forecast numbers. The latest sales forecast estimates for 4Q and 2010 "decreased" from last month's forecast estimates as summarized and discussed below.

Additionally, Cowan has extended the model in order to provide a "first look" at sales and sales growth estimates for each of the four quarters (and full year) of 2011.

October semicon sales
The actual Oct. 2010 global semiconductor sales released by the WSTS came in at $24.550 billion which is:

* 10.7 percent higher than last year's (2009) actual October sales of $22.181 billion;
* Down 15.3 percent from last month's (September) actual sales of $28.981 billion (Note - revised downward by $0.391 billion from last month's WSTS published sales number of $29.372 billion for September);
* And lower (by $0.593 billion, or down 2.4 percent) compared to last month's (September's projection) sales forecast estimate for Oct., that is, $25.143 billion;
* Thus, the Cowan LRA Model's Momentum Indicator, MI, went less negative (rose to -2.4 percent) compared to last month's more negative posture (at -6.5 percent).

Note: November 2010’s Sales Forecast Estimate is projected to be $25.566 billion.

The latest monthly update to 2010's global semiconductor sales forecast estimate, as derived from the Cowan LRA forecasting model run, dropped to $301.305 billion corresponding to a projected 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of 33.1 percent.

These latest forecasted 2010 sales and sales growth estimates both decreased from last month's (Sept.) sales and sales growth forecast estimates of $302.646 billion and and 33.7 percent, respectively. The full complement of the latest, updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for 4Q and 2010 are detailed in the table below along with the 1Q's, 2Q's and 3Q's actual reported sales numbers.Source: Cowan LRA model.

The second table (above) shows the corresponding results from the previous month's model run in order to allow comparison of the sequential forecast estimate numbers, namely, between October (latest) and September's (previous) forecast (and actual) numbers.

Additionally, next month's (Nov. 2010) global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $25.566 billion, which would "translate" to a November 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $26.366 billion assuming NO (or very minor) revisions to either September or October sales numbers as part of the WSTS's November sales report publication.

The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA (using WSTS sales numbers) as part of its monthly press release that characterizes the semiconductor industry's monthly sales and sales growth posture. The SIA's November 3MMA press release is scheduled to be announced on Monday, January 3, 2011.

Finally, see the next table, given below, for what the model's (present) thinking is for 2011. This table reveals the 2011 quarterly sales and sales growth predictions (note: numbers represent "first shot" out of the barrel) with 2011's overall sales growth forecast estimate coming in at +2.3 percent.Source: Cowan LRA model.

Therefore, the model's "first look" at 2011 sales growth forecast number is at the low end of the range.

However, I should point out that these first pass 2011 forecast numbers will "evolve" (each month) as 2010 wraps up and as 2011 plays out.

The evolution in the month-to-month 2010 year-on-year sales growth forecast estimates is an outcome of the dynamic nature of Cowan's forecasting methodology.

Cowan has also provided the latest updates to the tracking of various market watchers 2010 sales growth expectations (see below).Source: Cowan LRA model.

There is a new tracking table comparing various market researchers 2011 sales growth forecast prognostications (see below).Source: Cowan LRA model.

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