Sunday, November 6, 2011

Updated global semicon sales forecast 2011's estimate falls $2.74 billion

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

On Wednesday, Nov. 2nd, 2011, the WSTS posted its Sept. 2011's HBR (Historical Billings Report) on its website thereby facilitating the calculation of the monthly update for the latest global semi sales forecast estimates for 2011 and 2012 via exercising the Cowan LRA forecasting model.

These latest forecast results reflect September 2011's actual monthly sales and include revisions to previous months' reported sales numbers. According to the WSTS's September HBR, September's actual global semiconductor sales came in at $29.442 billion with a corresponding September 3MMA sales of $25.764 billion.

It should be highlighted that two of the previous eight months (January through August), namely July and August, experienced very minor sales revisions from last month's published HBR.

Thus, the YTD cumulative global semiconductor sales through September totaled $227.852 billion. This represents a 2011 YTD sales growth of 2.2 percent compared to the same time period in 2010 when September 2010's YTD sales were $222.853 billion. This continues a downward trend in the month-to-month 2011 YTD sales growth numbers from the beginning of the year as shown in the table here.Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The Cowan LRA model's sales forecast estimates for the month of September as determined by last month's model run were $31.528 billion (actual) and $26.413 billion (3MMA), respectively. Consequently, the model's September sales MI (Momentum Indicator) came in at minus 6.2 percent, which marginally improved from last month's sales MI of minus 7.5 percent.

This indicates (mathematically speaking) that the semiconductor industry's September's actual sales came in $1.959 billion lower than the model's previous month's forecasted expectation. This suggests that 2011's sales growth could continue to trend downward for the remainder of this year relative to this month's 2011 sales growth expectation of 3 percent as discussed below.

Plugging the latest actual sales numbers abstracted from the September HBR into the Cowan LRA forecast model produced the following updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for the final quarter of 2011 as well as for all four quarters of 2012 and the full years:Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

The key take-aways from comparing the latest forecast expectations versus the previous month's projections (as displayed in the above table) are highlighted below:

* 2011's updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimate fell by $2.740 billion to $307.258 billion (from last month's sales forecast estimate of $309.998 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2011's sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 3 percent (from last month's 3.9 percent sales growth forecast estimate).
* October 2011's actual sales forecast expectation is expected to come in at $25.622 billion, which corresponds to an October 3MMA sales estimate of $26.487 billion assuming no (or very minor) sales revisions to either August or September's published actual sales compared to September's just published HBR by the WSTS.
* 2012's global semicon sales forecast estimate fell by $4.867 billion to $330.759 billion (from last month's sales forecast estimate of $335.627 billion).
* Correspondingly, 2012's sales growth forecast estimate dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 7.6 percent (from last month's 8.3 percent sales growth forecast estimate).

Major high level results => sales and sales growth expectations for both 2011 and 2012 continue to systematically decrease over the previous six month's predictions put forth by the Cowan LRA forecast model as highlighted in the table below:Source: Cowan LRA model, USA.

Next month's Cowan LRA Model's forecast update which will reflect October 2011's actual global semi sales is anticipated to be available on or about Tuesday, Dec. 6th, 2011 following the posting of the Oct. HBR by the WSTS on its website.

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