Monday, April 20, 2009

Feb. 09 global semicon sales forecast results: Ala Cowan LRA model

This is an addition to the continuing coverage on the global semiconductor industry forecasts in form of a monthly update to the Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales forecast numbers.

Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, has provided the latest numbers the model has "spit out" based upon the recently published (by WSTS) Feb 2009. actual sales number.

Key points:

1. FEB09 actual sales number ($13.456B) came in in excellent agreement with last month's sales forecast estimate (of $13.446B) which represents a plus 0.077 percent delta comparing the Feb09's actual sales result to the model's previous forecast estimate (see below).

This percent delta represents the Cowan LRA model's momentum indicator and is defined as the percent difference between the actual sales for a given month -- in this case February's just released actual global sales of $13.456 billion and the forecasted sales estimate for February, that is, $13.446 billion which was calculated and published last month.

The momentum indicator can be either positive or negative and is a measure of the percent deviation of the actual monthly sales number from its previous month's prediction which is derived from the model's linear regression analysis of the past 25 years of historical monthly global "sales experience."

2. The latest Cowan LRA Model's full year 2009 global sales forecast estimate is $182.084 billion. It is up very slightly compared to last month's 2009 sales forecast estimate of $181.896 billion.

In terms of 2008 to 2009 expected sales growth the year-over-year sales growth estimate is projected to be -26.8 percent, which is identical to the previous month's sales growth forecast number as detailed in the table below (note that quarterly sales forecasts are also presented covering each of the next five quarters along with a sales forecast for next month, namely March 2009).Source: Mike Cowan

Sources: WSTS (Actuals) and COWAN LRA MODEL (Forecasts)
NOTE - Jan09 Actual Sales REVISED (SLIGHTLY) UPWARDS TO $13.167B.

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