Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Update on global semicon sales forecast estimates: Cowan’s LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2010 global semicon sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semicon sales.

These latest forecast numbers are displayed in the second table below and are based upon the recently posted figures on the WSTS website Mar. 2010 actual sales result of $26.533 billion with a corresponding 3MMA of $23.060 billion. The actual 1Q/10 sales came in at $69.101 billion.

It should be noted that there were very minor upward revisions to both January and February actual sales numbers relative to the previous monthly published global S/C sales numbers as highlighted below:Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (May 2010).

The updated sales forecast estimate for 2010 — $294.98 billion — shows a drop from last month’s forecast estimate — $298.88 billion. This corresponds to a decrease in the year-over-year 2010 sales growth estimate of 1.8 percentage points, namely from 32.1 percent to 30.3 percent.

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