Friday, July 9, 2010

Cowan's LRA model: 2010 YoY semicon sales to grow 34.6 percent

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here is the latest update to the Cowan LRA model-derived forecast results reflecting the just released "actual" May sales.

2010 YoY sales growth forecast of 34.6 percent
The actual May global semiconductor sales, as announced by the WSTS, came in at $24.007 billion, which is up 45.4 percent from last year's May sales of $16.509 billion and up 2.6 percent from last month's (revised) sales of $23.391 billion (revised upwards slightly from last month's released April sales number of $23.385 billion).

Therefore, the latest updated 2010 sales forecast estimate determined by the Cowan LRA forecasting model is $304.696 billion corresponding to a 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast of 34.6 percent.

These latest forecasted 2010 sales and sales growth numbers increased from last month's reported forecast estimates of $301.865 and 33.4 percent, respectively. These improved results reflect the relatively strong May sales number as reported by the WSTS.

The full complement of the latest, updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for 2Q, 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are detailed in the table below along with 1Q's actual numbers.Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (July 2010).

Additionally, next month's June 2010 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $28.291 billion, which would result in a June 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.230 billion.

The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA in its monthly press release to characterize the semiconductor industry's monthly sales and sales growth posture. The SIA's June 3MMA is scheduled to be announced on Tuesday, Aug 3, 2010.

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