Friday, December 11, 2009

Global semiconductor sales forecast: Cowan’s LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. Here, I’d like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.
Here are the latest forecast results for 2009 and 2010 global semiconductor sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semiconductor sales.

The presently updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently published October 2009 actual sales numbers released by the WSTS.

The table details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next five quarters, that is, from 4Q09 through 4Q10, respectively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.

As the table below shows, the latest updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates increased by +2.6 percent and +2.1 percent, respectively, to $217.9 billion and $234 billion, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $212.3 billion and $229 billion, respectively.

The updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to year-on-year sales growth forecast estimates of -12.3 percent and +7.4 percent, respectively, which represent a continuing improvement compared to last month’s sales growth predictions of -14.6 percent for 2009, but a slight decrease from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of +7.9 percent for 2010.

Table Summarizing Latest Cowan LRA Model’s Sales & Sales Growth Forecast Estimates For Next Five QuartersRemember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Additionally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for November 2009. Thus November’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $18.32 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA (three-month moving Aaverage) sales forecast estimate of $21.45 billion as normally published by the SIA.

Watching the watchers
In addition to running his forecasting model each month, Cowan also monitors and tracks the semiconductor sales growth prognostications of a wide range of other semiconductor industry watchers (including both WSTS and SIA bi-yearly forecasts), thereby tracking what each of their respective predictions are for 2009’s sales growth (compared to 2008).A table (as well as a distribution graphic) summarizes (and pictures) the 2009 sales growth forecast estimates for 22 other market researchers (besides Cowan). As shown, ongoing revisions for each one of the market analysts 2009 sales growth estimates are listed along with the latest updates over the past month — nine during this reporting period – highlighted with (<== UPDATE).As is evident from perusing the numbers for the group included in the tables and plotted in the histogram, the most update 2009 sales growth prediction range is a relatively broad distribution displaying a tri-modal “signature” hovering around declines of -20 percent (5 forecasters), -17 percent (2 forecasters) and -11 percent (14 forecasters), respectively.

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